Does a price rise mean you made money?
Often it doesn't. Across 44,224 card-months, the typical rise in a year was +38% before any cost, and 79% of cards went up.[1] Yet bought and sold online, the typical return after fees, tax and shipping was −7%, and only 43% of cards made money.
That gap is the whole story. Of cards bought and sold online, 36% rose in price and still lost money.
Online, the costs on both ends eat into the gain. You pay sales tax and a premium when you buy, then fees and shipping when you sell.
Card shows feel like the fix. No marketplace fee, no shipping label, no sales tax on a private cash deal. Plenty of collectors buy and sell in person for exactly that reason, and they're partly right. The trouble starts when you sell, because who buys your card matters more than where you are.
How much does a card have to rise to break even?
It depends far more on how you buy and sell than on the card. Online both ways, a $100 card has to rise 42% in a year to break even. Bought at a show and sold to another collector at market, its break-even is −9%: it can fall that much and still come out even.
The numbers
| Group | Value |
|---|---|
| Show, to a collector | −9% |
| Show, chase card (87.5%) | +4% |
| Show, dealer trade (82.5%) | +10% |
| Show buy, online sale | +11% |
| Online buy, show sale | +17% |
| Show, dealer cash (75%) | +21% |
| Online both ways | +42% |
| Show buy, shop cash (57.5%) | +58% |
Here's what goes into the online number. When you buy, you typically pay about 5% over market, plus $1 shipping. We added sales tax at a California rate of 9.5%.[2] When you sell on TCGplayer, the commission is 10.75% and payment processing is 2.5% plus a small flat charge.[3] We used the better of TCGplayer's and eBay's fees, a sale a little under market and $2 to ship, and every route pays $1 a year to store the card.[4]
At a show, the costs move around. A buyer who negotiates pays about 90% of market on average.[5][6] That discount is a head start. Sold to a dealer for cash at 75% of market, the same $100 card needs a 21% rise.[7][8] Sold to a local shop for cash at 57.5% of market, it needs 58%.[9][10][7]
Those dealer and shop rates are the middle of the ranges dealers and shops pay at shows and counters, not measured sales. Their own published buy rates bear the ranges out.
Which way of buying and selling actually made money?
Buying at a show and selling to a collector at market did best, and selling to a local shop did worst. On the show-to-collector route, the typical return was +51% in a year before income tax, and 84% of cards made money.
The numbers
| Group | Value |
|---|---|
| Show, to a collector | +51% |
| Show, chase card (87.5%) | +32% |
| Show, dealer trade (82.5%) | +24% |
| Show buy, online sale | +21% |
| Online buy, show sale | +16% |
| Show, dealer cash (75%) | +13% |
| Online both ways | −7% |
| Show buy, shop cash (57.5%) | −14% |
Mixing routes lands in between. Bought at a show and sold online, the typical return was +21%, with 67% of cards in profit. Bought online and sold to a collector at a show, it was +16%, with 64% in profit. Cutting the costs on just one side helps a lot.
Selling to a dealer for cash at 75% of market gave a typical +13%, and 61% of cards made money.[7][8] A local shop at 57.5% of market turned the same cards into a typical −14%, with only 37% in profit.[9][10][7]
Why do cheap cards need a bigger rise?
Because shipping is flat, and a flat cost takes a bigger bite out of a small sale. Online both ways, a $20 card needs a 62% rise to break even, while a $1,000 card needs 30%.
The numbers
| Group | Value |
|---|---|
| $20 card | 62% |
| $50 card | 47% |
| $100 card | 42% |
| $250 card | 39% |
| $1,000 card | 30% |
The returns show it too. Cards under $50 bought and sold online had a typical return of −10% in a year. Pricey cards also get a break from TCGplayer's commission cap, which takes at most $75 on one card.[3]
Go cheaper and it gets worse. Every card in this study is worth $20 or more. Below $10, or for a played card, dealers and shops pay 50% of market at most.[9] Bulk commons and uncommons fetch about $0.01 a card at a shop.[11]
Is the "no fees at a card show" idea right?
Half right. Buying at a show really does start you ahead, because you pay under market and skip the online premium, sales tax and shipping. The catch is the sell side: unless another collector pays you market, someone still takes a cut, just not as a line on a receipt.
A dealer pays under market, more in trade than in cash, and most for a chase card. For a clean, sought-after card, a show dealer pays 70% to 80% in cash.[7][8] In trade toward a card on their table, they give 80% to 85%.[12][7] For a chase card or a high-end slab, a competitive dealer may pay 85% to 90% in cash.[12][8]
Those better rates come with strings. A trade is credit toward the dealer's own cards at the dealer's prices, not cash. We counted the 82.5% trade rate as cash, which flatters a trade when the dealer's prices sit above market.[12][7] The 87.5% chase rate only fits sought-after cards, so treat that route as the best case a seller can hope for.[12][8]
A local shop pays least, because rent and payroll come out of its offer. Shops pay 50% to 65% in cash and up to 70% in store credit.[9][10][7]
And selling to a collector at market assumes one is standing at your table that day, wanting that exact card.
What does this mean for you?
Your break-even is set by how you plan to sell as much as by what you pay. A card bought online needs a real rise just to get you back to even. A card bought well at a show has some cushion, as long as you can sell it near market.
It helps to track what you actually paid, not just what a card is worth today. Pokelit prices English and Japanese cards every night from TCGplayer prices, and its binder tracks the value of what you own, so you can hold that against your own cost.
These numbers leave things out. Show time, travel, admission and vendor table fees aren't counted, and they can wipe out the margin on a small sale. Sales tax at a show depends on your state and on who's selling; we assumed none on a private in-person purchase.
Taxes don't care which route you used. These returns are before income tax, and a profit is taxable however the card is sold, up to 28% on a collectible held a year or more.[13]
Last, these are typical results across many cards from past prices, not a forecast for any one card. Real show and shop prices vary by card, condition, dealer and how hard you bargain. For what drives a card's price in the first place, see what makes a Pokémon card valuable.
How we measured
We priced eight ways of buying a card and selling it a year later. Buying online costs about 5% over the market price, 9.5% sales tax and $1 shipping. Buying at a show costs 90% of market in cash, what a buyer who negotiates pays on average. Selling online pays the better of TCGplayer’s and eBay’s fees, a little under market and $2 shipping. At a show, a collector pays the market price. A dealer pays 75% in cash (the middle of the 70% to 80% dealers pay for clean, sought-after cards), 82.5% in trade (80% to 85%) or 87.5% for a chase card (85% to 90%). A local shop pays 57.5% in cash (50% to 65%). Those ranges are what we see at shows and shop counters, and dealers’ and shops’ own published buy rates bear them out. Every route stores the card for $1 a year. We ran each route over every English single worth $20 or more that trades often enough to resell, bought at the end of each month since late 2022 and valued at its TCGplayer market price a year later. Returns are before income tax.
Data as of . Not financial advice.
Sources
- TCGplayer, TCGplayer Market Price. The price behind our figures, recorded every night by Pokelit. Accessed .
- California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, California City and County Sales and Use Tax Rates. Accessed .
- TCGplayer, TCGplayer Fees. Accessed .
- eBay, Store selling fees. Accessed .
- TCG Shows Near Me, How to Sell at Card Shows: Complete Vendor Guide. Accessed .
- The Card Shop Finder, Card Show Buying Tips: How to Get the Best Deals. Accessed .
- Keystone Games, The Two Sides of the Counter: Understanding Card Trade-In Values. Accessed .
- Dick & Jane’s, Dick & Jane’s Is Buying Pokémon Cards. Accessed .
- Gamers Guild, Buying and Selling TCG Singles FAQ. Accessed .
- Greg’s Games, Buylist and Buying Policies. Accessed .
- Knight and Day Games, Trading Card Game (TCG) Bulk Buy Rates. Accessed .
- Pocket Slabs, Sell Graded Trading Cards. Accessed .
- Internal Revenue Service, Topic no. 409, Capital gains and losses. Accessed .
Questions
Are there fees when you sell Pokémon cards at a card show?
There's no marketplace fee, but you usually pay in the price instead. A collector may pay market, but a show dealer typically pays 70% to 80% of market in cash for a clean, sought-after card, and a local shop pays 50% to 65%. Vendor table fees, admission, travel and your time cost money too, and none of those are in our numbers.
How much do card show dealers pay for Pokémon cards?
Usually under market: 70% to 80% in cash for a clean, sought-after card. In trade toward a card on their table, dealers give 80% to 85%, but that's credit at their prices, not cash. For a chase card or a high-end slab, a competitive dealer may pay 85% to 90%. Cards under $10 and played cards fetch 50% of market at most.
What are TCGplayer's seller fees for Pokémon cards?
TCGplayer charges a 10.75% commission plus 2.5% payment processing and a small flat charge, with the commission capped at $75 on one card. Add shipping, which we put at $2 per card sold. With the costs of buying online on top, a $100 card bought and sold online needs a 42% rise in a year to break even.
Is flipping Pokémon cards worth it?
It depends on how you buy and sell. Bought and sold online, the typical card returned −7% in a year before income tax, and only 43% made money. Bought at a show and sold to a collector at market, the typical return was +51%, with 84% in profit. Those show figures assume you pay 90% of market and find a collector who pays full market, and they leave out time, travel and table fees.
Do you pay tax on Pokémon card profits?
Yes, a profit is taxable however you sell the card, whether online, at a show or to a shop. On a collectible held a year or more, the tax on the profit can be up to 28%. Every return in this post is before income tax, so what you keep from a profitable sale will be lower.
